Overconfidence and War

Overconfidence and War
Author :
Publisher : Harvard University Press
Total Pages : 289
Release :
ISBN-10 : 9780674039162
ISBN-13 : 0674039165
Rating : 4/5 (165 Downloads)

Book Synopsis Overconfidence and War by : Dominic D. P. Johnson

Download or read book Overconfidence and War written by Dominic D. P. Johnson and published by Harvard University Press. This book was released on 2009-07-01 with total page 289 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Opponents rarely go to war without thinking they can win--and clearly, one side must be wrong. This conundrum lies at the heart of the so-called "war puzzle": rational states should agree on their differences in power and thus not fight. But as Dominic Johnson argues in Overconfidence and War, states are no more rational than people, who are susceptible to exaggerated ideas of their own virtue, of their ability to control events, and of the future. By looking at this bias--called "positive illusions"--as it figures in evolutionary biology, psychology, and the politics of international conflict, this book offers compelling insights into why states wage war. Johnson traces the effects of positive illusions on four turning points in twentieth-century history: two that erupted into war (World War I and Vietnam); and two that did not (the Munich crisis and the Cuban missile crisis). Examining the two wars, he shows how positive illusions have filtered into politics, causing leaders to overestimate themselves and underestimate their adversaries--and to resort to violence to settle a conflict against unreasonable odds. In the Munich and Cuban missile crises, he shows how lessening positive illusions may allow leaders to pursue peaceful solutions. The human tendency toward overconfidence may have been favored by natural selection throughout our evolutionary history because of the advantages it conferred--heightening combat performance or improving one's ability to bluff an opponent. And yet, as this book suggests--and as the recent conflict in Iraq bears out--in the modern world the consequences of this evolutionary legacy are potentially deadly.


Overconfidence and War Related Books

Overconfidence and War
Language: en
Pages: 289
Authors: Dominic D. P. Johnson
Categories: Political Science
Type: BOOK - Published: 2009-07-01 - Publisher: Harvard University Press

GET EBOOK

Opponents rarely go to war without thinking they can win--and clearly, one side must be wrong. This conundrum lies at the heart of the so-called "war puzzle": r
Failing to Win
Language: en
Pages: 358
Authors: Dominic D. P. Johnson
Categories: Political Science
Type: BOOK - Published: 2009-07-01 - Publisher: Harvard University Press

GET EBOOK

How do people decide which country came out ahead in a war or a crisis? Why, for instance, was the Mayaguez Incident in May 1975--where 41 U.S. soldiers were ki
Strategic Instincts
Language: en
Pages: 392
Authors: Dominic D. P. Johnson
Categories: Political Science
Type: BOOK - Published: 2022-08-30 - Publisher: Princeton University Press

GET EBOOK

"A very timely book."—Anne-Marie Slaughter, CEO of New America How cognitive biases can guide good decision making in politics and international relations A w
Blinders, Blunders, and Wars
Language: en
Pages: 329
Authors: David C. Gompert
Categories: History
Type: BOOK - Published: 2014-11-26 - Publisher: Rand Corporation

GET EBOOK

The history of wars caused by misjudgments, from Napoleon’s invasion of Russia to America’s invasion of Iraq, reveals that leaders relied on cognitive model
Revolution and War
Language: en
Pages: 382
Authors: Stephen M. Walt
Categories: Political Science
Type: BOOK - Published: 2013-08-09 - Publisher: Cornell University Press

GET EBOOK

Revolution within a state almost invariably leads to intense security competition between states, and often to war. In Revolution and War, Stephen M. Walt expla