Almost two hundred and forty years ago, an English clergyman named Thomas Bayes developed a method to calculate the chances of uncertain events. While his metho

This textbook explains the basic ideas of subjective probability and shows how subjective probabilities must obey the usual rules of probability to ensure coher

Tools to improve decision making in an imperfect world This publication provides readers with a thorough understanding of Bayesian analysis that is grounded in

Illustrates Bayesian theory and application through a series of exercises in question and answer format.

In this new and expanding area, Tony Lancaster’s text is the first comprehensive introduction to the Bayesian way of doing applied economics. Uses clear expla